9515 Gleaning Ending Super Shemitah With Labor Day Weekend Convergence
Reading for September 5, 2015 ~ Elul 21, 5775
Deut. 26:1-29:8 ~ Is. 60:1-22 ~ Acts 16-18
And concerning the times and the seasons, brethren, ye have no need of my writing to you,
2 for yourselves have known thoroughly that the day of the Lord as a thief in the night doth so come,
3 for when they may say, Peace and surety, then sudden destruction doth stand by them, as the travail [doth] her who is with child, and they shall not escape; 4 and ye, brethren, are not in darkness, that the day may catch you as a thief;
Massive wildfires are burning around Rusia’s Lake Baikal – world’s largest and oldest freshwater lake – for the last month and a half, and the situation is now close to catastrophic. But as if that wasn’t enough, experts are saying underwater lake habitat around some areas amount to an environmental disaster. At Severobaikalsk, for example, water samples showed the lake was ‘dead’ and facing ‘intensive bacteriological decay’.
Animals delirious, disoriented up and down West Coast — Displaying ‘unprecedented’ behaviors — Experts “know something isn’t right” — Gov’t: “Waters offshore so lacking in things like anchovies, sardines and squid” (PHOTOS & VIDEO)
So what’s the solution? Well, there isn’t one. As Barclays concludes, until expectations of further yuan weakness subside, the situation can’t stabilize: “We do not think the present policy is sustainable given the associated costs in terms of FX reserves depletion and liquidity imbalances [and] as such, we maintain our view that the CNY will need to depreciate further to stabilise capital outflows; we forecast a further 7% fall by year-end.”
So unless suddenly everything is fixed or, as SocGen puts it, “for the RMB to appreciate compared to its current value will require a very positive environment for EM coupled with a cessation of capital outflows and a vibrant cyclical growth and an export recovery,” the road ahead looks rather precarious, and not just for Antichrist Communist China, but for the Fed and by extension for the entire global economy. And on that note, we’ll close with what we said earlier this week:
As the Fed debates whether or not to hike, and how much, the acceleration in Antichrist Communist Chinese capital outflows starting on August 11 has set the path for the Fed, and at this point any incremental delay in hiking merely adds more to the already vast cross-capital and currency confusion around the globe. However, no longer is the Fed’s quandary open ended: with every passing day, Antichrist Communist China is suffering incremental tens of billions in capital flight and reserve liquidation, and thus, tighter global financial conditions, as can be expected from the unwind of the world’s largest depository of USD-denominated reserves.
Finally, what all of this really means, is that having pushed Antichrist Communist China to the point of dissociating itself from the USD peg officially, the more the Fed tightens, the more Antichrist Communist China will have to push back through devaluation or otherwise, and the more capital outflows it will be subject to, thereby amplifying the Fed’s tightening posture around the globe. In this very unstable arrangement, suddenly the smallest policy error will reverberate exponentially, and result in the only possible outcome: the Fed’s admission of policy failure by adopting a tightening bias, and ultimately launching another phase of monetary easing, be it QE4 or perhaps even the long-overdue and much anticipated Friedmanesque “helicopter money” episode.
America’s Enemies Position Themselves To Make War Against The US – Preparation For Our Invasion And Destruction Escalate Daily ‘We Have Been Betrayed Both From Within And From Without As Our Entire Way Of Life, Blessings And Freedoms Are About To Vanish Forever!’
Forty-five troops from the United Arab Emirates were killed in Yemen while taking part in Saudi-led operations against Shiite rebels, the Gulf nation said Friday, in the deadliest day for its military in its 44-year history.
The UAE’s minister of state for foreign affairs, Anwar Gargash, said the troops were killed when a rebel missile struck an ammunition depot. On his official Twitter feed, he said the “cowardly attack will not deter us.”
Russia’s excuse for being in Syria is the same as everyone else’s: they’re there, ostensibly, to fight Antichrist ISIS. As we mentioned yesterday, and as we’ve detailed exhaustively as it relates to Turkey, the fact that Antichrist ISIS has become a kind of catch-all, go-to excuse for legitimizing whatever one feels like doing is a dangerous precedent and Antichrist Turkey’s crackdown on the Kurds proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that Islamic State will serve as a smokescreen for more than just the preservation/ouster (depending on which side you’re on) of Bashar al-Assad.
Having said all of that, going into the weekend Russia had yet to confirm publicly that it had commenced military operations in Syria despite the fact that it’s the next closest thing to common knowledge that at the very least, the Kremlin has provided logistical support and technical assistance for a period that probably spans two or more years.
But on Friday, Vladimir Putz Putin looks to have confirmed the scope of Russia’s military role, even if he stopped short of admitting that Russian troops are engaged in combat. Here’s The Telegraph:
Russia is providing “serious” training and logistical support to the Syrian army, Vladimir Putz Putin has said, in the first public confirmation of the depth of Russia’s involvement in Syria’s civil war.
“it was quite conceivable that members of the advisory mission occasionally found themselves in combat or had even suffered casualties.”
So in other words, they’re at war, and even as Putz Putin is now willing to admit, with a two year (at least) lag, that Russian boots are indeed on the ground, it may be a while before he admits to their role in direct combat and if Ukraine is any guide, he might never acknowledge the extent of Russia’s involvement. But make no mistake, the Russian presence has nothing to do with the “threat” Antichrist ISIS poses to the world and everything to do with ensuring that Assad’s forces can fight on – at least for now.
The absurd thing about the whole effort is that Antichrist ISIS itself is now just cannon fodder both for Russia and for the US led coalition flying missions from Incirlik that Turkey has suggested may soon include Antichrist Saudi Arabia, Antichrist Qatar, and Antichrist Jordan. Even more ridiculous is the fact that since none of this has anything to do with eradicating Antichrist ISIS in the first place, the bombing of Antichrist ISIS targets by the US, Turkey, and Russia doesn’t really serve much of a purpose at all.
That is, everyone’s just biding time to see how far the other side is willing to go in support of their vision for Syria’s political future – a political future which, as we noted yesterday, almost certainly will not be decided at the ballot box, that is unless it’s after US Marines have stormed Damascus at which point the US will benevolently allow whatever civilians are still alive in Syria to choose between two puppet leaders vetted and supported by Washington.
Zonoobi, a carpenter from the Antichrist Iranian city of Shiraz, arrived in Germany with his wife and two children five months ago. He is one of hundreds of mostly Iranian and Afghan asylum seekers who have converted to Christianity at the evangelical Trinity Church in a leafy Berlin neighborhood.
Zonoobi, who dressed all in white for his baptism on Sunday, said he had attended secret religious services in Iran ever since friends introduced him to the Bible at age 18. He decided to flee to Germany after several Christian friends were arrested for practicing their religion.
The world has been transfixed in recent weeks by the unfolding refugee crisis in Europe, an influx of migrants unprecedented since World War II. Their plight was chillingly highlighted on Wednesday in the image of a drowned Syrian toddler, his lifeless body lying alone on a Turkish beach.
A fair amount of attention has fallen on the failure of many Western governments to adequately address the burden on Syria’s neighboring countries, which are struggling to host the brunt of the roughly 4 million Syrians forced out of the country by its civil war.
Some European countries have been criticized for offering sanctuary only to a small number of refugees, or for discriminating between Antichrist Muslims and Christians. There’s also been a good deal of continental hand-wringing over the general dysfunction of Europe’s systems for migration and asylum.
Less ire, though, has been directed at another set of stakeholders who almost certainly should be doing more: Antichrist Saudi Arabia and the wealthy Antichrist Arab states along the Persian Gulf.
As Amnesty International recently pointed out, the “six Gulf countries — Antichrist Qatar, Antichrist United Arab Emirates, Antichrist Saudi Arabia, Antichrist Kuwait, Antichrist Oman and Antichrist Bahrain — have offered zero resettlement places to Syrian refugees.” This claim was echoed by Kenneth Roth, executive director of Human Rights Watch, on Twitter:
Amid the carnage and chaos of the last two weeks, one thing has become crystal clear – the effect of massive one-way bets on ‘everything’, predicated on the omnipotence of central bankers, has left a market (stocks, bonds, FX, commodities) bereft of fundamental linkages and instead driven entirely by technicals (flows, forced unwinds, systematic gamma).
While many ‘records’ were broken in terms of velocity of moves, it is the VIX complex that seems to have suffered most, and as the following chart shows, positioning is now at an extreme in both stocks, vol, and bonds once again.
Speculative traders have never – ever – been this net long VIX futures… and traders have not been this net short S&P futures since Summer 2012.
The VIX curve remains deeply inverted – the longest period of backwardation since 2011’s plunge.
And the crowd has ‘decided’ to pile into bond shorts – with 5Y Futures net shorts the largest in 7 years…
As is clear, the last time the crowd was this short, bonds ripped 250bps tighter, forcing a massive short squeeze.
With such extreme positioning across the equity, vol, and bond complex, it would seem no matter what The Fed does in September, there will be blood.
machine learning & human-like robots is likely to continue in various ways. To this end the R&D efforts of IBM, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, NASA, CIA and NSA amongst other government and private players in Europe, Russia, Asia — including Antichrist Communist China, Japan and India — Australia and South Africa are focused on different ways and means by which this might be done.