21015 Gleaning Antichrist New World Order 666 Team Obozo 911 POTUS Clown Survival Means World War 3 Tribulation Domino Babylon ”IS” Fallen ”IS” Fallen
Are we on the verge of a major worldwide economic downturn? Well, if recent warnings from prominent bankers all over the world are to be believed, that may be precisely what we are facing in the months ahead. As you will read about below, the big banks are warning that the price of oil could soon drop as low as 20 dollars a barrel, that a Greek exit from the eurozone could push the EUR/USD down to 0.90, and that the global economy could shrink by more than 2 trillion dollars in 2015.
Most of the time, very few people ever actually read the things that the big banks write for their clients. But in recent months, a lot of these bankers are issuing such ominous warnings that you would think that they have started to write for The Economic Collapse Blog. Of course we have seen this happen before. Just before the financial crisis of 2008, a lot of people at the big banks started to get spooked, and now we are beginning to see an atmosphere of fear spread on Wall Street once again. Nobody is quite sure what is going to happen next, but an increasing number of experts are starting to agree that it won’t be good.
One thing that could greatly accelerate our economic problems is the crisis in Greece. If there is no compromise and a new Greek debt deal is not reached, there is a very real possibility that Greece could leave the eurozone.
If Greece does leave the eurozone, the continued existence of the monetary union will be thrown into doubt and the euro will utterly collapse.
Of course I am not the only one saying these things. Analysts at Morgan Stanley are even projecting that the EUR/USD could plummet to 0.90 if there is a “Grexit”…
If that happens, we could see a massive implosion of the 26 trillion dollars in derivatives that are directly tied to the value of the euro.
We are moving into a time of great peril for global financial markets, and there are a whole host of signs that we are slowly heading into another major global economic crisis.
So don’t be fooled by all of the happy talk in the mainstream media. They did not see the last crisis coming either. THIS TIME IS BIBLICAL!
And now for something completely unexpected: 2 minutes of pure truth (courtesy of Mizuho’s Steve Ricchiuto) on CNBC…
It was Sara Eisen that had the quote of the brief clip… (which has unbelievably been edited out since we posted it seems at around the 1:40 mark) when faced Steve’s barrage of facts about the real economy, replied:
“but the key is that’s not what The Fed is telling us.”
Summing up the unbelievable ‘faith’ (misplaced beyond all reputational loss) that so many have in the central planners of the world.
Netanyahu allies have also asked whether V15’s hiring of Jeremy Bird, national field director for Antichrist NWO 666 President Barack Obozo’s 2012 campaign, is a sign the White House is backing efforts to defeat the prime minister.
‘Absolutely False’ AKA Beltway for ”whatayuh gonna do bout it?”
A Netanyahu backer in Congress, Republican Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, asked Secretary of State John Kerry whether U.S. funds to OneVoice have been used for V15 “or any similar effort to exert undue influence over the Israeli political process.” State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki called the allegations an “absolutely false report.”
Netanyahu critics find Likud’s attacks on foreign funding ironic given his backing from Adelson, perceived support for Mitt Romney when he challenged Obozo in the 2012 presidential race, and a planned speech to Congress that’s expected to jab at White House policy on Iran.
SPECIAL GUEST: GORDON THOMAS “Espionage, Antichrist ISIS, & Putin”
Thomas’ most recent bestseller is Gideon’s Spies: Mossad’s Secret Warriors. Published in 16 languages and 40 countries Gideon’s Spies is known throughout the world as the leading resource on Israeli intelligence. An updated edition will be published in 2012 by St. Martin’s Press. Gideon’s Spies was made into a major documentary for Channel Four in Britain, which Thomas wrote and narrated, called The Spy Machine. The Observer called The Spy Machine a “clear” picture of Israeli intelligence operations, and The Times called it “impressive,” and ”chilling.”
Former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore, a Republican, said Obozo’s remarks were the ‘most offensive I’ve ever heard a president make in my lifetime.’
‘He has offended every believing Christian in the United States. This goes further to the point that Mr. Obozo does not believe in America or the values we all share,’ Gilmore said immediately following the speech, per the Washington Post.
Referencing the murder of Jordanian pilot Muadh al-Kasasbeh at the hands of Antichrist ISIS, revealed earlier that week, Fox and Friends host Elizabeth Hasselbeck argued on the show Friday, ‘Christians had nothing to do with a man being burned alive in a cage we saw on Wednesday that we saw took place last month.
‘Nothing to do it,’ she added, angrily. ‘Yet he named them, invoked the name of Christ — our savior— three times and talked about Christians but couldn’t call radical Islam for what it was, couldn’t name the person behind the match.’
Christian apologist Don Stewart believes that the New Testament suggests that Iran, together with Russia, poses a major threat not only to Israel, but to the US as well.
While Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may not have been able to convince Antichrist NWO 666 US President Barack Obozo The 911 Clown that Antichrist Iran poses an existential threat to Antichrist Israel, he does have at least one person who shares his viewpoint.
Christian apologist Don Stewart believes that the New Testament suggests that Iran, together with Russia, poses a major threat not only to Israel, but to the United States as well.
The Christian Post quoted Stewart as saying that Ezekiel 38 contains a prophecy in which Persia (modern day Iran), and Rosh, apparently Russia, have a military alliance in “the last days.”
Stewart argued that Antichrist Iran, as Antichrist Shi’ites, believe that they “are divinely ordained” to have nuclear weapons.
Antichrist Netanyahu may not believe in “the Rapture” or the prophecies in the New Testament, but in Stewart, he has found a partner in his fears of Antichrist Iran.
Stewart for his part, however, thinks that it is prophecy being fulfilled rather than something that can be stopped by further sanctions or the threat of military action.
“It’s like we are seeing foreshocks of a powerful earthquake that is ready to happen. The prophetic events are like dominoes closely stacked together. When the first domino falls, the others will fall in short order.”
Perhaps this sums up the opposition best…
If we allow oversight of the Fed, it could become more difficult to funnel trillions to failed bankers.
It would appear the powers that be are getting nervous. Yesterday, Antichrist NWO 666 Fed Governor Jerome Powell (and Fisher and Plosser) stepped up the central bank’s push against what he termed congressional efforts to extend political influence over monetary policy, calling them “misguided” and “in violent conflict with the facts.” Today we have Senator Elizabeth Warren trying to sound supportive of transparency but proclaiming that she opposes Rand Paul’s “Audit The Fed” Bill because it promotes “congressional meddling in the Fed’s monetary policy decisions.”
Desperate to appear a huge opponent to Wall Street (and The Fed) Warren begins… (as Bloomberg reports)
while she “strongly” supports greater congressional oversight of Fed’s regulatory and supervisory responsibilities
Then retraces and hinders the efforts to bring transparency:
[Warren] opposes current version of Fed audit legislation because it promotes “congressional meddling in the Fed’s monetary policy decisions,” according to e-mailed statement from Warren office.
Such meddling risks “politicizing those decisions and may have dangerous implications for financial stability and the health of the global economy”
^^^Warren, with this bullshit about ”politicizing”, when it doesn’t get more ”Slush” than the whole world sealed by the Mark of the 666 Fed Beast, is going straight to Hell. Kicking her teeth in prior to her entry into oblivion is one of the great temptation of all time. Resistance in this case truly is futile, lol.
With Russia allegedly moving its military presence deeper into NATO territory in Europe (with a Cyrpiot base), Bloomberg reports that in response to the regions’ growing strategic importance, the US plans to open naval base in Australia (risking further “inflamed tensions” with China) in the midst of a “pivot-to-Asia” that will see 60% of its naval forces deployed in the region by 2020. The latest move, Admiral Greenert confirms, “we’re doing a study together with the Australia Defence Force to see what might be feasible for naval cooperation in and around Australia, which might include basing ships,” as the Indian Ocean and South China Seas are becoming “geostrategic hot spots.”
All hail The Antichrist NWO 666 Nobel Peace Prize winner…
The potential bolstering of forces in Australia and plans to expand Exercise Malabar to a permanent quadrilateral exercise reflects the Obama administration’s 2012 Pivot to East Asia regional strategy, whose key areas of actions include “strengthening bilateral security alliances” and “forging a broad-based military presence.”
We can only imagine how The Great Wal Mart Of China will feel about this…
The world is now on the cusp of total war. This is the claim made by former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury Paul Craig Roberts in a recent editorial. And though doom predictions are quite popular given what’s going on in the world as of late, to disregard Roberts’ assessment as fear-mongering or hype would be short-sighted and dangerous. No, this time is not different, and if political leaders around the world, especially in the United States, Russia and Europe, don’t come to an agreement on the future of Ukraine then it is only a matter of time before we eventually cross the line into a scenario from which there is no return – for all we know, we may have already crossed it at this point.
While the American media has generally ignored the broader implications of what’s happening in Ukraine, often dismissing it as Europe’s problem and one that has no long-term ramifications for the U.S., the fact is that the United States is directly involved in not only the political machinations behind the scenes of Ukraine’s new government, but military operations as evidenced by recent videos showing armed American-English speaking personnel on the ground during the recent artillery shelling of the city of Mariupol.
This weekend European leaders from France and Germany met with Vladimir Putin to negotiate a peace settlement. Antichrist NWO 666 President Obozo The 911 Clown attended as well, but the Nobel Peace Prize winner seems to be there just as a formality because he made no effort to put forth a peace plan of any kind.
In fact, if anything, Obozo suggested that he is prepared to take things to the next level if Vladimir Putin doesn’t agree to the West’s demands. According to a report from the BBC Antichrist NWO 666 President Obozo The 911 Clown has made it clear that the United States is on a war footing with Russia and we are now exploring all available options to deal with Putin should things in the Ukraine sour.
With Barack Obozo, NATO and the west preparing to arm the nation of the Ukraine with lethal aid, this bombshell comes to us straight from the pages of the Moscow Times and the video report below from All News Pipeline friend Freedom Fighter Reports as Russia has announced they will declare war if the United States arms Ukraine. Edging ever closer to the fulfillment of prophecy, this Moscow Times story informs us that Russia would see the arming of Ukraine AS a declaration of war by the US and the west and furthermore see the US as a ‘direct participant in the conflict’. .
Informing us that ‘the ante’ is ready to be upped if Obozo and the west arm Ukraine, we’re also told that ‘Washington or its’ allies’ could be responded to ‘asymmetrically’ on other fronts as the 1st real signs of World War 3 coming home to America are now being seen. The 2nd video below is an excellent compilation on recent news events leading up to WW3 coming to America called “WW3 News, Russia & West, No Peace In Hell.”
These comments come just a day after reports of a proposed Russian base in Cyprus and Dr Eyal says today’s developments “fall into a pattern of threats which coincide with what’s been happening in Cyprus.”
Members of the new Greek government have had developed good relations with Russia since coming to power. As well as objecting to calls for further sanctions against the country over the Ukraine conflict, Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras reportedly accused Kiev of harbouring “neo-Nazi” elements while on a trip to Moscow before he was elected.
“We don’t have much time left as Christians in this region,” the archbishop told a gathering of cross-party MPs and peers.
“As a Catholic I find it hard to say, but I want military action, there is no other way now.”
aroness Berridge, the Conservative peer and chairwoman of the all-party group on international religious freedom, said she was “shocked” to hear a Catholic Archbishop say military action was the only option.
“How bad, how evil this situation must be if this is the call of a Catholic archbishop,” she added.
The Rev Nizar Semaan, the London-based chaplain to Syrian Catholics in Britain, backed Archbishop Warda’s call.
Mr Senaan, an Iraqi from the Nineveh Plain, said: “Who is going to free our villages and towns? We do not believe in the Iraqi army or the Peshmerga.
“Britain should go and free our cities. In 2003, you didn’t complete the job.”
However, Syrian Anglican, the Rev Nadim Nassar, told the meeting that “bullets will not solve the problem”.
It comes after a recent report by the Defence Select Committee said the UK’s role in fighting IS extremists was “strikingly modest” and should be stepped up.
The group of MPs said it was “surprised and deeply concerned” the UK was not doing more.
Sisi’s response may not have been the one Antichrist NWO 666 U.S. President Obozo would have wished for, but it could not have been a surprise. He said that the two terrorist groups are essentially the same, they “share the same ideology.” However, as far as Sisi is concerned, the Antichrist Muslim Brotherhood spawned all the other current Islamic extremist groups, including Antichrist ISIS.
Antichrist NWO 666 President Obozo the 911 Clown has recently been harshly criticized for having visitors at the White House who, as members of the “political wing” of the Antichrist Muslim Brotherhood, had been members of the former Egyptian government.
The Egyptian president tied the Antichrist Muslim Brotherhood’s fundamentalist belief that terrorists ascend to paradise when they die as martyrs as the progenitor for modern Antichrist Islamic terrorism.
“We are determined to wipe them from the face of the Earth,” Maj. Gen. Mansour al-Jobour told NBC News on Sunday, citing the need for “revenge” after al-Kasabeh’s killing.
That much is clear. The question is what else is Jordan “determined” to do once it has military boots on the ground first in Iraq and soon, inevitably, in Syria which as a reminder, is what this is all about.
Abdullah also pledged to hit Antichrist Obozo’s ISIS militants “hard in the very center of their strongholds.”
One wonders why the need for the land grab, pardon, defensive incursion, when as previously reported, Jordan has already unleashed up to 20 missions per day by Jordanian jets targeting the militant group’s positions in Syria.
Retired Maj. Gen. Paul Vallely, a founding member of the Citizens’ Commission on Benghazi, told WND the Russians filled a void after the Antichrist NWO 666 Obozo administration cut off military supplies and equipment to Egypt in response to the overthrow of the Antichrist Muslim Brotherhood-backed president, Mohamed Morsi, which set the stage for Gen. Abdel-Fatal al-Sisi to become president.
Vallely noted that in October 2013, after the Obozo administration suspended military aid to Egypt, Sisi turned to Russia. The move was followed by Putin’s first visit to Egypt on Feb. 12-13, 2014, which resulted in Cairo’s decision to purchase some $2 billion of weapons from Russia.
Retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Tom McInerney, another founding member of the Citizens’ Commission on Benghazi, concurred.
“It is amazing how fast the Antichrist NWO 666 Obozo 911 administration has turned some of our most loyal allies against us. Egypt was the keystone of our Mideast Policy for 40 years,” McInerney said.
t appears, while Washington continues to proclaim they have single-handedly ‘isolated’ Russia and crushed its economy, nations around the world continue to want to do business with Putin and his nation…
*SISI: RUSSIA, EGYPT AGREE ON FREE TRADE ZONE W/ EURASIAN UNION
*SISI STRESSES IMPORTANCE OF MILITARY COOPERATION W/ RUSSIA
Judging by the images of welcome on the streets of Cairo, the people of Egypt are anything but looking to ‘isolate’ Russia… even after the US “bailed them out” and they still have US-taxpayer-backed guaranteed bonds.
*EGYPT’S SISI THANKS PUTIN FOR SUPPORT IN TOUGH TIMES
*RUSSIAN DIRECT INVESTMENT FUND, EGYPT TO DEVELOP INVESTMENT
*SISI: RUSSIA, EGYPT SIGN AGREEMENT ON NUCLEAR POWER PROJECTS
*SISI: EGYPT, RUSSIA COOPERATION ON GLOBAL ISSUES IS IMPORTANT
*SISI :RUSSIA, EGYPT WILL TAKE COMMON STAND AGAINST TERRORISM
Another US-friendly regime has folded completely, and after bumbling US foreign intervention in Libya and Egypt made the countries into terrorist breeding grounds where Americans are kidnapped on sight or worse, it is now Yemen’s turn: another country in the Middle East whose president until recently was backed by the US government, and which will now be nothing more than civilian casualty fodder for remote-controlled US drones.
YEMENI EMPLOYEES SAY US AMBASSADOR IN YEMEN INFORMS STAFF THE EMBASSY IS CLOSING DOWN COMPLETELY, AMBASSADOR TO LEAVE BY WEDNESDAY
For those Americans who are still on location, fear not: you are in good hands:
US TO ASK TURKEY OR ALGERIA TO LOOK AFTER ITS INTERESTS IN YEMEN WHILE THE EMBASSY IS CLOSED – YEMENI US EMBASSY EMPLOYEES
And now it’s time for Obozo to discuss just how “isolated” Putin really is.
“You know what Obozo’s doing today?” said Levin. “He is building the Iranian Islamo-nazi caliphate. And I’ve been talking about this forever.”
Antichrist NWO 666 President Barack Obozo’s comparison of the savagery of the Antichrist Islamic State (ISIS) to the brutality of the Crusades reveals he is an “apologist for Islam,” former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay says.
“He doesn’t even know anything about the Crusades or history. Even if he did, that was 700 years ago,” DeLay said Monday on “The Steve Malzberg Show” on Newsmax TV.
“What does that got to do with … what we’re facing as a nation, and as a world — killing people, cutting off their heads, killing hundreds of children, burying them alive, burning people alive.
“That has nothing to do with anything except in Obozo’s world. He has got to be an apologist for Antichrist Islam.”
Obozo made his controversial comparison at last week’s National Prayer Breakfast following the execution of a Jordanian pilot, whom Antichrist ISIS terrorists placed in a cage and burned alive.
DeLay, a Texas Republican who represented the Lone Star State’s 22nd District and is now a Washington Times radio host, said the president has been lying to Americans about Antichrist Islam.
Special: What Your Tongue Says About Your Thyroid. See the Photo.
“Antichrist Islam is not a religion of peace, unless you read the Antichrist Quran and peace comes after they’ve conquered the world and everybody submits to Antichrist (a)llah,” DeLay said.
“That’s when peace comes. It is a violent religion and we all know that. He says Antichrist Islam is tolerant.
“Tolerant? If you commit apostasy, in other words, if you are a Antichrist Muslim and you change your religion and go to another religion, you are to be killed. That’s not tolerance.”
DeLay said Obozo is on a mission to “reach out and protect Antichrist Islam from these extremists that he would not call Antichrist Islamic radicals.”
“[He] is putting America and the world for that matter in extreme danger. To turn [National Security Adviser] Susan Rice over to micromanage this whole effort puts us even more in danger.
“This is just unbelievable. Are we going to be able to get through the next year and a half [of Obozo’s term]?”
DeLay said Antichrist radical Islam is spreading throughout northern Africa and the Middle East.
“They’re building nuclear weapons and it is now spreading throughout Europe. It’s been in the United States forever, but Obozo refuses to acknowledge it,” DeLay said.
“The FBI just announced a week or so ago that 48 states have Antichrist Islamic radical cells in those states. We’re allowing the Antichrist Muslim brotherhood to move freely to America. This group called CAIR, Council for American Antichrist Islamic Relations, is moving freely within America.
“The Antichrist Muslim Student Association, which is nothing but a front for the Antichrist Muslim brotherhood, is moving freely and the president is meeting with … Antichrist Muslims in the White House and not meeting with Christians or Jews.”
Obozo Is an ‘Apologist for Antichrist Islam’
Obozo’s idiot remarks about the evil of the Crusades, needs to be factually examined in detail. Here is such a list:
In short, Antichrist muslim bastards have been murdering humanity in mass for a long time. Antichrist Islam is the most vile pathetic violent stupid religion. NEWS FLASH:All muslim bastards end up in Hell, along with every Antichrist bastard on Earth like Obozo.
Caddell surveys the political landscape and says Washington “reminds him of Vienna in 1914 on the cusp of World War I,” where inside the perimeter all seemed well, while war was about to break out only a few miles away.
He says the country is at a tipping point, “a pre-revolutionary moment,” where citizen power is eroding while Washington is absorbed with keeping its own power. To him, the country is in decline, politicians are self-absorbed and Antichrist NWO 666 President Obozo The 911 Clown is in a dangerous “twilight zone” without media scrutiny.
The Benghazi deaths that revealed Obozo’s failed foreign policy still make his blood boil. He wonders if the famed investigative journalist Bob Woodward is really a “clone from the Invasion of the Body Snatchers,” since he shows no interest in uncovering the greatest cover-up in American history. Mitt Romney is also a target of Caddell’s wrath for deserting his country in the third presidential debate when he failed to pursue the Benghazi matter simply because he thought he was going to win.
The strategist recalls “when the Democrat Party was the voice of the common man, not the dictator to the common man.” Today, Democrats “have become a tool totally controlled by special interests. The left doesn’t care about ordinary people.” He says big environmental funders like “Tom Steyer basically control the White House and other people.” He detests hypocrites who “fly around in private planes but think the rest of us have to have bicycles.”
Antichrist NWO 666 President Obozo’s State of the Union address was “terrifying” to Caddell, as he saw a president who looked like he “lives in his own bubble in a universe far, far from where we live” with “a team of sycophants.” He continued, “We can survive bad domestic policy. With foreign policy, he can threaten security and destroy the world.” Caddell mentions how this “ship of fools” running foreign policy shockingly promoted the Antichrist Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. They can’t even call the Antichrist Islamic State “Antichrist Islamic terrorism.”
He thinks America is at a “tipping point” and puts the blame mostly on Democrats, harkening back to how it was Republicans who finally clamored for Nixon to resign. Cadell asks, “Who will go tell this president what time of day it is,” breaking through the bubble he’s living in?
A moderately strong, long duration solar flare measuring M2.4 at its peak time erupted from Region 2282 (‘beta’) late on February 9, 2015. The event started at 22:19, peaked at 23:35 and ended at 00:16 on February 10.
Another large snowstorm was affecting New England, US on February 9, 2015 dropping more snow on the region and breaking records.
On February 9, NOAA’s National Weather Service in Boston, Massachusetts noted that “The 30-day snowfall total at Boston ending 7 a.m. this morning is 61.6 inches (156.4 cm). This exceeds the previous maximum 30 day snowfall total on record at Boston, which was 58.8 inches (149.3 cm) ending February 7, 1978.”
“It has been a huge surprise to observe that in the 18th century the levels of the Sun’s activity were practically the same as they are now,” points out José M. Vaquero, researcher at the University of Extremadura (Spain) and co-author of the research, a review of the number of sunspots recorded in the last 400 years.
“A proper estimate of the past and present activity of the Sun, our main source of light and heat, is crucial in understanding numerous phenomena that occur on Earth, especially to rule out the role of the Sun in global warming,” says Vaquero, “but we come up against the problem that two indices or ways of calculating historical solar activity exist, and their data does not coincide when describing what happened before the 20th century”.
Pope Francis is set to become the first leader of the Catholic church to address both chambers of Congress, during his trip to the US later this year. The House speaker, John Boehner, said on Thursday that the pope will visit the US Capitol in Washington on 24 September, where he is scheduled to be the first pontiff to address a joint meeting of Congress. “It will be a historic visit, and we are truly grateful that His Holiness has accepted our invitation,” Boehner said in a statement. He is also hoping to influence this year’s UN climate meeting in Paris, according to papal representatives. Delegates from around the globe are gathering in Paris as part of a UN-led attempt to end 20 years of negotiations on how to reduce emissions and better address climate change. In 2015, the pope is due to speak about the issue in an address to the 1.2 billion Catholics worldwide and the UN general assembly. He is also to call a summit of the main global religions to discuss the climate.
Last month, Boehner announced that Congress had invited another world leader to address a joint session of Congress – the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. Neither Boehner nor Netanyahu cleared the trip with the White House.
Most liquid and efficient markets in the world…
No Europe, they are not laughing with you. Laughter aside, this of course, means that Greece now once again has full liberty to engage Russia and China as sources of funding right?
And the market reacts…
Forget any conciliation: what is going on behind the scenes a day ahead of the Eurogroup meeting is nothing short of disaster.
“The Greeks are digging their own graves,” warns one EU official, according to MNI, with another exclaiming the Greek plan as “hopeless” and added “how can you have a plan when you make no payment obligation till the autumn and then you probably scrap that.” Simply put, speaking on condition of anonymity, an EU official described the situation as “berserk” adding “there is no plan.”
Meanwhile, we may have just hit peak trial balloons. Too bad the ECB can’t monetize those when it runs out of Bunds to buy.
There was much confusion earlier today surrounding the immediate fate of Greece, when first thing in the morning Bloomberg reported a rumor that the European Commission would grant Greece a 6 month extension, sending futures surging, and then several hours later, futures surged some more when Germany’s finance minister crushed the first rumor, saying “it was wrong” and that without a Greek program, it was “all over.”
Which means that the only relevant overnight news when stripping away the endless trial balloons and BS that Europe covers itself with before every important economic summit, was what the Greek defense minister said as reported by Reuters, namely that Greece now has a Plan B if Europe refuses to budge – the same “plan” we hinted last month:
Greek Defence Minister Panos Kammenos said that if Greece failed to get a new debt agreement with the euro zone, it could always look elsewhere for help.
“What we want is a deal. But if there is no deal – hopefully (there will be) – and if we see that Germany remains rigid and wants to blow apart Europe, then we have the obligation to go to Plan B. Plan B is to get funding from another source,” he told Greek television show that ran in to early Tuesday. “It could the United States at best, it could be Russia, it could be China or other countries,” he said.
In other words, a threat that if Europe doesn’t need Greece (as the EuroStoxx50 and S&P500 are so giddy to confirm), then Greece also doesn’t need Europe for the only reason it has needed it for the past 6 years: to provide funding.
Not only that, but Greece would also promptly default on debt held by the ECB and launch the contagion that UBS described earlier, with the only question being how quick it would spread across what is left of the European “Union” and Eurozone.
Western observers were certainly not amused at the Greek comments. As Newsweek reported, Dr Jonathan Eyal from defence and security think tank the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) called Kammenos’ statement an “unbecoming threat from a NATO member state.”
This would lead to the unthinkable: should Greece pivot to Russia it would permit Putin to build Russian bases on NATO soil!
Eyal was not impressed: “It’s possible although it’s a farfetched. If you were to see Russian bases in NATO territory it would obviously raise serious concerns.” Or, as Putin would call it, victory. Of course, just because on the surface this possibility appears “farfetched” is why the western punditry is refusing to completely ignore it.
We bring this all up because as everyone by now knows, tomorrow night is the emergency Eurogroup meeting when, among other things, Greece will ask for a bridging loan to cover funding needs until August, something which Germany has already suggested is a non-starter, and yet hopes remain that somehow a compromise will emerge. Furthermore, while there are future meetings in the immediate future, as a reminder Europe’s 10 day ultimatum to approve the bailout program is ticking, and runs out just in time for the next meeting, after which all bets will be off. So for all intents and purposes, tomorrow is when Greece must get some much needed clarity on what happens next: whether Europe is ready to compromise or, if not, consider Plan B.
And while most are aware of all of the above, it is the Plan B aspect which few have considered. It is here that as Kathimerini reported yesterday, things are indeed getting serious, to the point where one may be forced to even think about the “unthinkable.”
As Greek Kathimerini reported, “Greece’s Foreign Minister Nikolaos Kotzias is to visit Moscow on Wednesday to hold talks with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s Interfax and TASS news agencies reported on Monday citing a source in the Russian Foreign Ministry.”
In other words, at precisely the same time as the FinMin is in Brussels discussing the fate, or lack thereof, of Greece in the Eurozone, the new Greek foreign minister will be in the Kremlin, getting instant updates from Brussels and perhaps discussing the fate of Greece in the Eurasian Economic Union.
Which means that as soon as tomorrow night, if the Eurozone is indeed intent on kicking Greece out as some have suggested, we may know if not Russia but Europe is who suddenly becomes more “isolated”, as one of its current member flips allegiance to the man most hated by the entire “developed” world.
Or put in the simplest of terms, tomorrow Greece will decide: Europe, or Russia.
The process can be very rapid indeed.
Perhaps the most curious aspect of this, third, Greece “”exit crisis, is just how completely unnoticed it has gone by the capital “markets”, or rather non-Greek capital markets. Which, considering the changed dynamics of the negotiations, was to be expected. As explained again earlier, this time around it is imperative on the central planning regime to keep stocks and bonds as stable as possible heading into tomorrow’s negotiations with Greece, because should global risk not bat an eyelid, it will mean that Greek leverage is non-existent as the “market” (which courtesy of central banks no longer really exists) does not anticipate any contagion, and is why the S&P has actually been surging in the past week.
There are two problems with this, as UBS laid out yesterday: 1) (lack of) risk no longer reflecting reality doesn’t make sense and 2) “Breaking the deadlock” in negotiations voluntarily may not be easy, “hence, outside pressure—in the form of financial and market dislocations—seems necessary to focus minds.”
However, as we noted yesterday, point 2 is only relevant for Europe: Syriza, and largely Greece, no longer cares what the stock market does: only the Eurozone does (and as long as the ECB is there to backstop it in any case, the European “market” isn’t going anywhere). If anything, the only concern of the Greeks is what happens to bank deposits, although by this point anyone who would have pulled their money from the bank already has.
Which means that once again, thanks to central bank intervention, the discounting process is broken, and has been skewed to reach a specific political outcome. However, in the worst case scenario – one in which Greece does exit the Eurozone – it will simply mean that the moment of reality has been at best postponed. And the moment when the can kicking ends and reality can no longer be avoided is the millisecond after Greece announces it has quit the Eurozone.
It is very difficult for governments to control the progress of a monetary union break-up because the example of one country exiting will create a precedent in the eyes of other members of the monetary union. The transmission channel is not government bonds, nor equities, not currency markets, but banks. In the event of a Greek exit from the euro, the loss in the real value of Greek bank deposits would encourage bank depositors in other countries to withdraw their funds. This is not a question of bank solvency in these other countries – just as deposit withdrawal from Scottish banks ahead of the Scottish referendum in 2014 was presumably not motivated by questions of solvency. Rather the motive is the perception of risk around what currency one will receive in exchange for one’s deposit in the future, and what that currency will buy relative to what it can buy today.
The process can be very rapid indeed.
In its 1933 report the US Federal Reserve commented, with commendable understatement, that at the start of the year “In addition to currency hoarding, there were substantial transfers of deposit accounts from banks in which depositors had lost confidence to other institutions, involving in many cases the shift of funds from one section of the country to another.”
Nevada was the first state to declare a bank holiday on 31 October 1932. The contagion was initially quite slow, but then accelerated – on 4 February 1933 Louisiana joined in, and then on 14 February Michigan declared a four-day holiday and then extended it. Michigan’s actions are regarded as the tipping point for contagion. Less than a fortnight later a bank holiday was declared in Maryland. On 1 March 1933 four states declared holidays, another six declared on 2 March, another seven on 3 March, and five (including New York) on 4 March 1933. On 6 March 1933 the national banking system was closed by Presidential order.
In the case of the euro area it seems unlikely that the current, incomplete banking union and non-existent fiscal union would be sufficient to prevent the contagion of bank runs spreading to other countries in the wake of a Greek exit from the euro. The starting point is that other countries are at risk of departure in response to a Greek exit. If the political status quo is maintained, it has to be thought likely, maybe probable, that Greece will not be alone in exiting the euro. It would be irrational for depositors to gamble their life savings if they believe that there is even a 5% chance that their country could leave the Euro. A 5% chance of a 60% loss in the value of one’s savings (assuming a Greek parallel) would make the effort of withdrawing or transferring funds worthwhile. As with the deposit withdrawal within Greece, once the first spark of fear has been ignited the conflagration of contagion is likely to spread very rapidly.