The Truth is Not a Choice Every Knee Shall Bow 4^ Currently The Antichrist NWO Whores R U.S. Standing 666 Sealed In Contempt Re-Confirming The Prophetic Strong Delusion Wine Of Wrath Overflowing

by amongthenumberedsaints

Won’t Get Fooled Again

Central bank polices have ruptured the proper functioning of capital markets. Policy over-reach with gargantuan experimentation has, and continues, to fuel extreme mispricing of risk and mis-allocation of resources. Soaring market volatilities with wild daily gyrations are a symptom.

A battle is raging between the non-believers (doubters of policy success) versus those clinging to the hope that a soft landing can someday be engineered.

So what do investors do in a ZIRP/NIRP world (Zero/Negative Interest Rate Policy)? Why would anyone pay money to lend money?

Aggressive central bank activity and implicit promises have led to behavioral changes where investors have become fearful of missing out on the easy returns of markets that are perceived to rise perpetually (as long as the Fed doesn’t hike).

Finland became the first country to issue debt as long as 5 years in the primary market at negative yields. In the secondary market, Germany, Sweden, Switzerland and The Netherlands have negative yields on debt trading out to 5 years. Nestles became the first corporation to have a negative yielding bond.

As policy rates and bond yields plummet, and as equity markets power to new highs, investors need to recognize that future expected returns decrease, because (for the most part) rising markets shrink upside potential, while enlarging downside potential. Nonetheless, some investors myopically believe that ‘money printing needs a home’ and that it will end up in equities (the asset class with upside). However, such a belief needs to include a deep faith in the central bank’s abilities to navigate a soft landing. History is not on their side. Investors pouring into equities might be playing an epic game of chicken.

There are significant consequences of ZIRP and NIRP

“Investors Are Now Playing An Epic Game Of Chicken” 

Consultancy firm McKinsey & Co just issued a report finding that global levels of indebtedness have increased from $142 Trillion in Q4 2007 to $199 Trillion in Q2 2014 with debt as a share of GDP rising from 270% to 286%. Debt is being added at a faster rate than GDP. Policy makers are borrowing from the future to solve the short term problems of today. The result is unstable future outcomes and ballooning risks to market stability; concurrent with complacent investors unwittingly scramble for paltry returns. Holding cash has never looked so good.

“We’ll be fighting in the streets / with our children at our feet / and the moral that they worship will be gone.” – The Who

http://jimbakkershow.com/video/preparing-for-tribulation/ 

MPs say yes to Antichrist NWO three-person babies

“[This] will be passed down generations, the implications of this simply cannot be predicted.

“But one thing is for sure, once this alteration has taken place, as someone has said, once the gene is out of the bottle, once these procedures that we’re asked to authorise today go ahead, there will be no going back for society.”

The debate in Commons also repeatedly struggled with whether the move would constitute “genetic modification”.

Dawn Of The GMO Babies—First Up, Engineered Humans With Heritable Germline Alterations

Presented with little comment aside to ask (rhetorically of course), who is The Fed working for?

The Death Cross Of American Society 

As BofAML warns, if Main St. doesn’t recover this year on the back of the powerful cyclical combo of lower oil/rates/currencies then the specter of “policy failure” will haunt investors, and currency wars, debt default and deficit financing will become macro realities..

“Mission Accomplished” Dow, S&P, And Nasdaq Surge To Green For 2015 

The biggest short squeeze in 15 months appears to have solved the ‘status quo’ concerns that “everything is awesome” just like The Fed says. Following Nasdaq’s brief leap into the green yesterday, this morning’s melt-up has dragged The Dow, S&P and Nasdaq into positive territory for the year… just a good job macro- and micro-fundamentals are so supportive…

Because… fun-durr-mentals 

Biggest Short Squeeze Since 2011 Sends Stocks Surging, USDollar Purging 

Who could have seen this coming??!! When Gartment flipped bearish on Monday, we said…

Translation: The Biggest Short Squeeze Of 2015 May Be Imminent
At the end of the day… Stocks like European uncertainty, higher oil prices, weaker macro data, and disappointing earnings – BTFD!!!

It wasn’t just bonds that were sold. The USDollar has had its worse 4 day drop since Sept 2013 as the battle between The BoJ and The SNB continues….

The face of NBC News lied for a dozen years about being in a helicopter he was not in; about being in a helicopter that was hit by an RPG that was not hit by an RPG; about fearing for his life on the ground when he didn’t fear for his life.
Brian Williams stole someone else’s war story and made it his own … for 12 years. He repeated the lie on the air at NBC … for 12 years. He only confessed to his lying after he was caught.

But if you think about it, it makes sense for NBC to keep a serial stolen valor liar like Brian Williams as the face of its dishonest, fraudulent news division. Perfect sense.

The fact is, all the ”networks” are full of Antichrist NWO 666 sold out media Whores of Babylon.

Nobody should ever consider trusting a word these liars read from their script.

At this point, anyone that accepts Obozo The POTUS Clown as an ”American”, because they believed the same media that still has the nerve to say 911 2001 and 2012 are not inside jobs, should take out a 30 year mortgage in New York City now because it’s safe and secure from terrorist attack. LMAO.

NBC SHOCK: BRIAN WILLIAMS FORCED TO RECANT IRAQ WAR LIE REPEATED FOR 12 YEARS

Hacking allegations

News Corp, owner of the Wall Street Journal, HarperCollins book publisher and real-estate websites, fell 13 per cent last year. The company split from Fox in 2013, not long after allegations that a Murdoch-owned tabloid hacked into the voicemail of a murdered schoolgirl.

Earlier this week, News Corp and Fox said the US Justice Department won’t prosecute either company after an investigation into the hacking scandal and payments to public officials in the UK.

Kingdom, which owns half of the Savoy hotel in London and is backing a project to build the world’s tallest tower in Jeddah, is planning to sell shares in a “significant” number of assets, Chief Financial Officer Mohammed Fahmy said in an interview last week. The company is considering offerings on the Saudi stock exchange and internationally, he said.

Kingdom declined 0.6 per cent to 18.96 riyals on Wednesday in Riyadh. The shares have lost 21 per cent in the past 12 months compared with a 5.1 per cent advance for Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index.

Rupert Murdoch exposed as Saudi billionaire Alwaleed sells most of stake in News Corp

Biometric Tipping Point: USAA Deploys Face, Voice Recognition 

Banking Industry Report: We Are At A Biometric Tipping Point—Face, Hand, Voice Recognition To Allow Buying & Selling Via Blink Of An [666] Eye — Literally 

USAA is letting its members log in to mobile banking in the blink of an eye — literally.

The San Antonio financial services company has rolled out facial recognition technology across its entire membership base that lets them access its mobile app with a tap of their smartphone camera and a blink when prompted (to prove they’re a live person and not a photo). USAA is also giving members the option of logging in with a spoken phrase.

This makes USAA the first major U.S. financial institution to deploy a full-scale rollout of voice and facial recognition. In an industry that has tried and failed to make biometric identification work for 50 years, USAA’s efforts could be a significant turning point.

All American Credit Cards To Have Antichrist NWO 666 RFID Chips Staring This Year 

OCTOBER 2015: THE END OF THE SWIPE-AND-SIGN CREDIT CARD

“Every credit card in the U.S. will be replaced by October 2015 with new cards that contain the chip-and-PIN technology that the rest of the world has had for years, according to the Wall Street Journal. Both Visa and MasterCard are committed to the switch, which will render extinct the plastic in your wallets and purses right now. No more black magnetic stripes; no more signing on the dotted line.” source

The new EMV credit card system in the U.S. is set to be rolled out by October, 2015. Also going away is the ability to sign for your purchases, that will no longer be necessary.

Instead, you will enter a PIN to verify that you are the holder of the card. Removing the human element is one more step in the march towards the Mark Of The Beast system that will be in place during the Tribulation under the Antichrist.

Your Car, House, Everything Will Know If You Are 666-Complaint In The Future… And People Are Finding That “Irresistible”

a simple software update can dramatically change what an already owned product can do. Most updates add functionality, but in this case an update took functionality away.

Ali Ahmed Karti is well known by Sudanese and South Sudanese alike. He first attained notoriety in the early 1990’s as the commander of the Popular Defense Force (PDF), the Islamist militia tasked by Sudan’s National Islamic Front regime with raiding South Sudanese villages and taking women and children as slaves. The PDF went on to assist the murderous Janjaweed, the Arab militia used by the Sudanese government in Khartoum to commit genocide in the western Sudan region of Darfur.

Today Karti and the other top leaders of Sudan’s National Islamic Front/National Congress Party regime, including Sudan President Omar al Bashir, preside over ongoing genocidal war in the country’s Nuba Mountains and Blue Nile State. Karti committed to cleansing those regions of the black African indigenous groups through over three years of ongoing aerial bombardment, scorched earth campaigns, and the banning of international food aid. In addition, the foreign minister is accused of instigating the slaughter of hundreds of Darfurian refugees sheltering in Bentiu, South Sudan during an attack by rebels under the leadership of South Sudan’s former vice president, Riek Machar.

Ibrahim Ghandur is likewise complicit in the Sudan regime’s genocidal policies. Both in his role as minister of information and as presidential assistant to Bashir, Ghandur has been a minister of disinformation for Khartoum. He has been the chief spokesperson of the Sudanese regime to so-called peace talks, meant only to delay any international action to stop the genocide perpetrated by the Sudanese regime in Nuba Mountains and Blue Nile State.

Even in an age of such moral equivalence as this, it should be obvious that representatives of the Sudanese regime should not be allowed to enter the United States, let alone attend the highly-publicized National Prayer Breakfast. The U.S. continues to have sanctions against Sudan, and Sudan continues to be on the terrorist list.

PERPETRATORS OF SUDAN’S GENOCIDE INVITED TO THE NATIONAL PRAYER BREAKFAST 

Breakfast in Washington could very well be another step towards normalizing relations between the U.S. and Sudan, and dropping sanctions – which seems to be the goal of both the Khartoum regime and the Obama Administration.

Remembrance of the 100th anniversary of the Armenian genocide is one of the themes of this year’s prayer breakfast. Perhaps the breakfast organizers don’t realize that the massacred Armenians share a common enemy with the marginalized Sudanese people groups. Inviting officials of what is arguably the world’s most genocidal regime to the National Prayer Breakfast is an insult to the victims of that genocide as well as to the millions of victims of religious, racial, and ethnic genocide in Sudan and South Sudan.

FEBRUARY 5, 2015
National Prayer Breakfast
Antichrist NWO President Obozo The Clown spoke at the annual congressional prayer breakfast and proceeded to do his usual trashing of Christianity as Antichrist Muslim Murders that are continuing to murder Christians sat in front of him because they were invited. At the opening a message from Petrus Romanus Pope was offered and provoked The Spirit Of Antichrist in Obozo The POTUS Clown to smile about Christians being murdered SEE FOR YOURSELF Starting AT THE 0:01:19 minute mark Then at the 01:15;51 mark Antichrist Obozo opens with typical Antichrist Muslim cadence with no real mention of Christ beyond Obozo’s personal image of ”doubt as humility” for the sake of The Antichrist author of confusion stagger and stumbling as a man in the Antichrist image of Obozo The NWO 911 POTUS Clown joke upon the world. Then the buffoon distorts ”our religion”? (at this point there is no logic in the idiots words unless by ”our religion” he means Antichrist Islam, because if he is still using ”Christ in doubt and confusion etc… he has gone above and beyond humility right to his usual defamation of Christ America etc.. Then the Gay Pride fool quotes Petrus Romanus Antichrist Homosexual ”who am I to judge?” LOL AAAAmazing Hint to prayer breakfast attendees, NEVER EVER REMAIN IN A ROOM WITH OBOZO THE PANDERING IDIOT CLOWN! EVER! IF YOU DIDN’T GET UP AND WALK OUT YOU ARE A CLOWN! Even if you are Andrew Young, who at least declared Christ and boldly spoke correctly after Obozo made a mockery of the entire event, the nation and most importantly our Father in Christ!

And having taken bread, having given thanks, he brake and gave to them, saying, `This is my body, that for you is being given, this do ye — to remembrance of me.’

20 In like manner, also, the cup after the supping, saying, `This cup [is] the new covenant in my blood, that for you is being poured forth.

Luke 22 

21 `But, lo, the hand of him delivering me up [is] with me on the table,

22 and indeed the Son of Man doth go according to what hath been determined; but wo to that man through whom he is being delivered up.’.

Genesis 3 

And the Lord God said unto the woman, What is this that thou hast done? And the woman said, The serpent beguiled me, and I did eat. 

John 2 

And the passover of the Jews was nigh, and Jesus went up to Jerusalem 14 and he found in the temple those selling oxen, and sheep, and doves, and the money-changers sitting, 15 and having made a whip of small cords, he put all forth out of the temple, also the sheep, and the oxen; and of the money-changers he poured out the coins, and the tables he overthrew, 16 and to those selling the doves he said, `Take these things hence; make not the house of my Father a house of merchandise.’.

Revelation 12 

and the dragon was angry against the woman, and went away to make war with the rest of her seed, those keeping the commands of God, and having the testimony of Jesus Christ.

Revelation 13 

And he causeth all, both small and great, rich and poor, free and bond, to receive a mark in their right hand, or in their foreheads:

17 And that no man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark, or the name of the beast, or the number of his name.

It Will Now Cost You 0.75% To Save Money In Denmark: Danish Central Bank Cuts Rates For FOURTH Time In Three Weeks

It has become a weekly thing now. In its desperation to preserve the EURDKK peg, the Danish central banks has cut rates into negative, then cut them again, then again last week, and moments ago, just cut its deposit rate to negative one more time, pushing NIRP from -0.5% to -0.75%, its fourth “surprise” rate cut in the past 3 weeks!

And all this even after Denmark launched bizarro QE when instead of adding to Treasury demand, Denmark decided to boost prices of long-dated bonds by cutting all supply indefinitely. Looks like that strategy failed less than a week after its launch.

The good news is that all those who still haven’t gotten the epic deal of getting paid to take out a Danish mortgage, are one step closer. And the other news is that with every passing rate cut, Denmark essentially admits it is one step closer to pulling an SNB, facing reality and admitting it can no longer peg to the EUR.

The kneejerk reaction in the EURDKK is higher…

… but we doubt it will last more than a few minutes.

Update (30 seconds later)

It wasn’t “a few minutes” – it was “seconds.”

Iran nuclear talks, Syrian war, Ebola outbreak and cyber-terrorism will be discussed in Munich conference

Security confab focuses on ‘collapse of global order’

BERLIN — The Ukraine conflict, Islamic State group jihadists and the wider “collapse of the global order” will occupy the world’s security community at an annual meeting in Germany from Friday

Also on the agenda of the three-day Munich Security Conference (MSC) will be Iran’s nuclear talks, the Syrian war and mass refugee crisis, West Africa’s Ebola outbreak and cyber-terrorism.

The event’s organizer, veteran German diplomat Wolfgang Ischinger, said the meeting will discuss what he called an unprecedented upsurge in global crises over the past year, and the inability of the international community to tackle them.

“The international order is collapsing right now,” he warned.

“We live in the age of the collapse of order. In this vacuum everyone is testing how far he can go: (Russian President Vladimir) Putin in Ukraine, China against Japan, Iran in the nuclear dispute, the jihadists with the horrible things they do.

“There is a massive need for ‘global governance’. Really the UN Security Council should be resolving a crisis a week — Iraq, Syria… Instead the council is blocked and so is any will to reform.”

‘World less stable’

The International Crisis Group (ICG), a think tank, has also warned that “on a global level, increasing geopolitical competition appears, for the moment at least, to be leading to a less controlled, less predictable world”.

The man is an easy target. He has a glass eye, Asperger’s syndrome, and he’s into heavy metal.

The 38-Year Old Neurosurgeon With A Glass Eye Who Became A Millionaire Hedge Fund Manager

and he carried me away to a wilderness in the Spirit, and I saw a woman sitting upon a scarlet-coloured beast, full of names of evil-speaking, having seven heads and ten horns,

4 and the woman was arrayed with purple and scarlet-colour, and gilded with gold, and precious stone, and pearls, having a golden cup in her hand full of abominations and uncleanness of her whoredom,
5 and upon her forehead was a name written: `Secret, Babylon the Great, the Mother of the Whores, and the Abominations of the earth.’

6 And I saw the woman drunken from the blood of the saints, and from the blood of the witnesses of Jesus, and I did wonder — having seen her — with great wonder;

Revelation 17 

A 2008 study from a Pentagon think tank, written by an expert in movement pattern analysis, speculated that Russian President Vladimir Putin has Asperger’s syndrome, “an autistic disorder which affects all of his decisions.” 

2008 Pentagon study says Putin has ‘an autistic disorder’

The report was obtained by USA Today through a Freedom of Information Act request. In 2008, Brenda Connors, an expert in movement pattern analysis at the U.S. Naval War College, and her colleagues were contractors for the Office of Net Assessment, an internal Pentagon think tank that creates long-term military strategy. In a study, Connors wrote that Putin’s “neurological development was significantly interrupted in infancy,” and after watching his movement, it was determined “the Russian president carries a neurological abnormality.” 

Mercury concentrations in Hawaiian yellowfin tuna increasing 

Mercury concentrations in Hawaiian yellowfin tuna are increasing at a rate of 3.8 percent or more per year, according to a new University of Michigan-led study that suggests rising atmospheric levels of the toxic substance are to blame.

Mercury is a toxic trace metal that can accumulate to high concentrations in fish, posing a health risk to people who eat large, predatory marine fish such as swordfish and tuna. In the open ocean, the principal source of mercury is atmospheric deposition from human activities, especially emissions from coal-fired power plants and artisanal gold mining.

For decades, scientists have expected to see mercury levels in open-ocean fish increase in response to rising atmospheric concentrations, but evidence for that hypothesis has been hard to find. In fact, some studies have suggested that there has been no change in mercury concentration in ocean fish.

By compiling and re-analyzing three previously published reports on yellowfin tuna caught near Hawaii, U-M’s Paul Drevnick and two colleagues found that the concentration of mercury in that species increased at least 3.8 percent per year from 1998 to 2008.

DISASTER PRECURSORS: Omen – The Latest Incidents Of Strange Animal Behavior, Mass Animal Die-Offs, Appearance Of Rare Creatures And Warnings From Mother Nature!

Planetary scientists have calculated that there are hundreds of billions of Earth-like planets in our galaxy which might support life.

The new research, led by PhD student Tim Bovaird and Associate Professor Charley Lineweaver from The Australian National University (ANU), made the finding by applying a 200 year old idea to the thousands of exo-planets discovered by the Kepler space telescope.

They found the standard star has about two planets in the so-called goldilocks zone, the distance from the star where liquid water, crucial for life, can exist.

“The ingredients for life are plentiful, and we now know that habitable environments are plentiful,” said Associate Professor Lineweaver, from the ANU Research School of Astronomy and Astrophysics and the Research School of Earth Sciences.

“However, the universe is not teeming with aliens with human-like intelligence that can build radio telescopes and space ships. Otherwise we would have seen or heard from them.

Planetary scientists predict Earth-like planets around most stars

FIRE IN THE SKY: “It Was Very Weird,… Was Falling Fast,… You Could See The Flames,… – Fireball Meteor Captured On Camera Over York, United Kingdom! 

Wednesday February 4 2015, 10:59:29 UTC 20 hours ago Offshore Sucre, Venezuela 5.1 111.0

Thursday February 5 2015, 04:40:55 UTC 2 hours ago South of Panama. 6.0 33.0

Thursday February 5 2015, 04:40:53 UTC 2 hours ago South Of Panama 6.0 5.0.

Thursday February 5 2015, 05:38:58 UTC 83 minutes ago Tachira, Venezuela 5.0 10.0

Very Strong luckily deep earthquake below Mendoza Province, Argentina

INFRASTRUCTURE COLLAPSE: TransAsia Plane Crashes Into Taiwan River As Magnetic Polar Migration Continues To Wreak Havoc On Global Transportation Systems – Incredible Footage Shows The Jet Nearly Hitting A Highway As It Ditched; At Least 11 People Dead! [PHOTOS + VIDEOS]

INFRASTRUCTURE COLLAPSE: Metro-North Train Crashed Into Two Cars In Valhalla, New York – Explodes And Catches Fire; Westchester Hospital Preparing For “Mass Casualty Situation”; 7 People Dead, Multiple Injuries! [PHOTOS + VIDEO]

It had been a while since a member of the Antichrist NWO 666 Obozo 911 US state department had visited ground zero of its second most disastrous intervention in the past year (the first being the embarrassment that is Antichrist ISIS) namely Kiev, Ukraine, the same place where precisely a year ago US assistant SecState Victoria Nuland was recorded in a hacked conversation saying to “Fuck the EU”, and revealed as the mastermind behind the violent Ukraine coup. Which is perhaps why today Antichrist NWO 666 Obozo 911 Clown US Secretary of State Skull&Bones John Kerry arrived in Kiev on Thursday “in a signal of firm US support for the country amid growing international alarm at a surge in fighting.”

In addition to whispering words of support to the local government, whose army has been on the defensive in past weeks in east Ukraine having lost several key outpusts, Kerry also unveiled $16 million in fresh US humanitarian aid.

And yet one can’t help but wonder if the true purpose of Kerry’s visit was something totally different, because just as the Antichrist NWO 666 Obozo 911 Clown US Secretary of State was landing in Kiev, the Ukraine central bank finally conceded defeat and announced it will not only raise its key discount rate by 5.5 percentage points to 19.5% effective Friday, but effectively return to a float of the local, Hryvnia, currency. The central bank scrapped the hryvnia’s indicative rate and canceled daily currency auctions. Ukraine will retain some administrative measures, including mandatory sales of foreign revenue for exporters and restrictions on individual currency purchases, according to Governor Valeriya Gontareva.

The reason for the surprise move, which partially ends Ukraine effective capital controls resulting from the economic crisis which had included restricting individuals’ FX purchases and maintaining a requirement for exporters to convert their overseas revenue into hryvnia, is the collapse in central banks reserves. As Bloomberg reports, “the monetary authority also spent almost $1 billion of its foreign reserves to support the currency before October’s parliamentary election. As the government repays foreign debt and finances natural gas imports from Russia, reserves have sunk more than 76 percent since 2012 to $7.55 billion.” And with reserves so low they can only cover at most a few weeks of imports, the central bank had no choice but to follow in the steps of the SNB and permit the forces of market supply and demand take their toll.

Toll, which as the chart below shows, has sent the Hryvnia plunging by about 35% following the announcement, and in the process pushing local prices of imported (and soon all other goods), higher

Ukraine Currency Plunges Over 30% After Central Bank Gives Up On Indicative Rate 

Not helping were comments by the local central bank head who said the “currency market is still dominated by a panic mood,” according to Governor Valeriya Gontareva who spoke to reporters in Kiev on Thursday, adding that Ukraine’s economy was torn by “multiple hryvnia rates.”

Well, now it will be torn by another bout of hyperinflation, which may well turn into all out economic collapse as the nation runs out of money unless the IMF bails it out: Ukraine hopes to conclude talks with the IMF within days over expanding its $17 billion bailout, Jaresko said Feb. 3. said.

Then again, the IMF may find it has its hands full with bailing out that other insolvent basket case, Greece, one which just so happens is actually a member of the European “Union.”

As for any further US help, and the reason why the central bank had to abdicate its duty, well Ukraine’s gold is long gone, so the western powers may have no further need to keep the financial stability in the country that is now a war-torn shell courtesy of its being the latest proxy pawn in the US global geopolitical chess game.

Russia Deploys Nuclear ICBM Launchers On Combat Patrol 

Now all that is needed is for Emmett Fitz-Hume and Austin Millbarge to show up and to confirm the old saying that “a weapon unused is a useless weapon”, especially if said weapon belongs to Northrop Grumman, Lockheed or General Dynamics..

Perhaps it is a coincidence that a day before John Kerry’s arrival in Kiev (a visit which “coincided” with a 35% devaluation of the local currency) where among other things the US statesman discussed the possibility of official (as opposed to unofficial) deliveries of US “lethal support” to the civil war torn and now hyperinflation country, that Russia decided to put its nuclear ICBMs on combat patrol missions in various Russian regions. Specifically, according to Tass, “About 700 units of military equipment, including launchers are deployed in the positioning areas in the Tver, Ivanovo, Kirov, Irkutsk regions, as well as in Altai Territory and the Mari El republic.”

Greece: The Big Picture Update, And Why Deutsche Bank Thinks Europe Will Fold

what is of far greater significance is his conclusion, namely that ultimately Europe will fold: “we consider the most likely outcome to be a Eurogroup offer of a new Third program” and “given that the current program expires this February the offer to negotiate a new Third program may provide political room for the government to sit on the negotiating table. At the same time such an offer is very likely to be attached to strict conditions, with the willingness to accommodate t-bill issuance an open question. Developments overnight suggest that this has become less likely, imposing maximum pressure on the government to reach agreement within a matter of weeks.”

If DB is right, and if Europe folds, the question then is what concessions will the ECB and the Eurozone be prepared to give to Italy, Spain and all the other nations where anti-European sentiment has been on a tear in recent months, and especially in the aftermath of Syriza’s stunning victory.

Yesterday evening we got an answer to the last question sooner than expected. The ECB no longer considers Greece to be under a program, and the rating waivers on Greek government-based collateral are being removed. We estimate that Greek bank funding at the ECB financing windows currently runs between 70-80bn EUR, of which approximately 30bn relies on AAA EFSF-based collateral. As a result the remaining funding (or about 50bn) will now have to shift to ELA from next week. Even if this decision is likely to have materialized when the program expired at the end of February, there are two broader implications.

First, the decision shows that the ECB is feeling increasingly uncomfortable providing financing to Greek banks while negotiations are under way. This in turn raises the more important question of how long and how large any ELA provision is going to last. ELA usage is subject to a cap that is under bi-weekly review and requires a 2/3 majority of Governing Council votes to be blocked. The government said that the cap was raised by 10bn this week to be reviewed after developments in the European Council and Eurogroup meetings in the next two weeks.

Second, the ECB decision shows that the ECB is very unlikely to accommodate increased t-bill issuance from the Greek government. There are currently two caps on t-bill usage. The first applies to total issuance and is currently set by the Troika at 15bn. The second applies to the t-bills that can be directly submitted to the ECB windows by Greek banks and currently stands at 3.5bn. The ECB kept this unchanged in yesterday’s meeting. The 11.5bn of t-bills not submitted to the ECB are currently financed by other types of collateral.

Big picture, the above two developments are likely to further accelerate timelines and pressure on Greece. The government’s strategy has been to secure a window between March (when the current program expires) and July (when a large GGB ECB redemption is due) over which to negotiate a new program. Time for this negotiating window would have been bought by both Troika and ECB willingness to accommodate increased t-bill issuance to pay for ongoing cash needs over the course of Q2. We have yet to hear from the Eurogroup on its willingness to raise the overall t-bill cap, but even if this materializes today’s ECB decision signals rising discomfort for the central bank to accommodate this, even indirectly via other types of collateral.

This then leaves the remaining two questions above that need to be answered over the next two weeks: the conditions under which the Troika/Eurogroup would be willing to negotiate with the Greek side and the Greek government’s response. The most confrontational outcome would be a Troika requirement that the current program review is completed, requiring a request from the Greek government to extend it before February 28th. A more conciliatory outcome would be an offer for negotiations on a new third program,** but accompanied by a pre-commitment (most probably written) by the Greek government to respect certain conditions. Irrespectively, the t-bill decision will be key: assuming the Troika and ECB are unwilling to approve higher issuance, the negotiations would have to be completed by the earliest of any potential ELA cap being hit due to deposit outflows or the Greek government running out of cash to pay ongoing budget needs. The exact timing of the latter remains unclear, but with Greek budget execution under very significant pressure due to the change in government and weakening economy this is unlikely to last beyond April.

The situation remains very fluid but as things stand we consider the most likely outcome to be a Eurogroup offer of a new Third program. Greece in any case has lost market access making ECCL eligibility unlikely, and given that the current program expires this February the offer to negotiate a new Third program may provide political room for the government to sit on the negotiating table. At the same time such an offer is very likely to be attached to strict conditions, with the willingness to accommodate t-bill issuance an open question. Developments overnight suggest that this has become less likely, imposing maximum pressure on the government to reach agreement within a matter of weeks.

The Oil Collapse Is Over (Again); WTI Jumps 5%, Tops $51 (Again)

“Most Shorted” stocks are now comfortably green on the year after the last 4 days have seen the biggest short squeeze in 15 months. Today alone, “most shorted” stocks are up 1.8%. Welcome to the new normal dash for trash on hopes that Greece is “fixed”, Q€ “works”, and despite dismal US macro data, it will be the economic engine of the world…

Quite a day so far…

Leading to the biggest 4-day squeeze in 15 months…

Market Surges On Biggest Short Squeeze In 15 Months

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