12114 Gleaning Ending 2014
Last week, total US debt was a meager $17,963,753,617,957.26. Two days later, as updated today, on Black Friday, total outstanding US public debt just hit a new historic level which probably would be better associated with a red color: as of the last work day of November, total US public debt just surpassed $18 trillion for the first time, or $18,005,549,328,561.45 to be precise, of which debt held by the public rose to $12,922,681,725,432.94, an increase of $32 billion in one day.
It also means that total US debt to nominal GDP as of Sept 30, which was $17.555 trillion, is now 103%. Keep in mind this GDP number was artificially increased by about half a trillion dollars a year ago thanks to the “benefit” of R&D and intangibles. Without said definitional change, debt/GDP would now be about 106%.
It also means that total US debt has increased by 70% under Obama, from $10.625 trillion on January 21, 2009 to $18.005 trillion most recently.
And now we wait for the US to become Spain, and add the estimated “contribution” from hookers and blow to GDP, once again pushing the total debt/GDP ratio below the psychological 100% level.
the price of oil has now broken below very important long-term trend lines.
Oil is now on an important “SELL” signal which suggests that prices still have more downside risk at the moment.
With very little spare capacity available domestically, the “hope” is that the U.S. can start exporting the excess to foreign countries. However, as discussed in the first chart above, global demand for oil is dropping as the Eurozone and Japan struggle with extremely weak economic growth.
Finally, since oil is priced in U.S. dollars, the surging U.S. dollar as of late only makes oil more expensive to foreign customers which will crimp demand further. The chart below shows the long history of the inverse correlation between the US Dollar and Oil Prices.
the decline in oil prices is a clear message that “something is awry” globally and investors should take heed that risks of a market decline have risen markedly. While I am not saying that the economy is about to slide off into a recession, previous declines in oil prices of the current magnitude have been associated with poor outcomes for investors. Caution is advised.
“The range of (our) missiles covers all of Israel today,” the chief of the Revolutionary Guards, General Mohammad Ali Jafari, said last week. “That means the fall of the Zionist regime, which will certainly come soon.”
Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Sunday the armed forces should increase their combat capability regardless of political considerations, in an apparent allusion to continuing nuclear talks with the West aimed at easing tension in the Middle East.
“Peacetime offers great opportunities for our armed forces to … build up on preemptive capacities,” said Khamenei, with state television playing excerpts of his speech.
The United States and its key regional ally Israel have both hinted they might bomb Iran to prevent it developing nuclear weapons. Iran denies any such ambition and insists its atomic program is designed for civilian projects.
With Khamenei’s blessing, Iran’s moderate President Hassan Rouhani launched a diplomatic initiative to resolve a 12-year nuclear dispute, hoping to save his country from punishing global sanctions. Tehran and six world powers missed a self-imposed deadline on Nov. 24 for a deal, but gave themselves seven more months to overcome their many differences.
Deputy Commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Brigadier General Hossein Salami said that the West Bank will turn into a hell for Israelis in the near future, Ma’an reports.
Salami said that the day will come when the Gaza strip and West Bank unite into one, and that the US cannot provide Israel, a land where “the fire of Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Islamic Jihad intertwine,” with security.
putting the US in direct conflict with al-Assad’s airforce and thus engaging the proxy war with Russia.
Russia is launching a new national defense facility, which is meant to monitor threats to national security in peacetime, but would take control of the entire country in case of war.
The new top-security, fortified facility in Moscow includes several large war rooms, a brand new supercomputer in the heart of a state-of-the-art data processing center, underground facilities, secret transport routes for emergency evacuation and a helicopter pad, which was deployed for the first time on Nov. 24 on the Moscow River. The Defense Ministry won’t disclose the price tag for the site, but it is estimated at the equivalent of several billion dollars.
The new National Defense Control Center (NDCC) is a major upgrade on what was previously called the Central Command of the General Staff, a unit tasked with round-the-clock monitoring of military threats against Russia, particularly ballistic missile launches, and deployment of strategic nuclear weapons. It was roughly a counterpart to the US National Military Command Center, the Pentagon’s principal command and control site.
Israel’s government was on the verge of collapse Sunday night as a split over a controversial new law designating the country as a Jewish state deepened into an all-out assault by cabinet rivals on Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister.
Mr. Netanyahu signalled that he was ready to call an early general election to stifle the rebellion, led by ministers from centrist coalition partners to his right-wing Likud Party.
He lashed out angrily after his finance minister, Yair Lapid, the leader of the Yesh Atid party, publicly accused him of playing “petty politics” while ignoring weighty issues such as the budget and Israel’s foreign relations, in the latest of a series of rancorous exchanges.
Sweden and the United Kingdom have, at least on paper, recognized a Palestinian [sic] state. This recognition has no practical significance but its reverbations undermine the foundations of the State of Israel. It is striking that. 550 Israelis have signed a petition calling for the Spanish Parliament to emulate Sweden and to also recognize the “Palestinian” enemy on the western side of the Jordan River.
Had the Europeans known the facts, had they wanted to know the facts — they certainly would not have voted as they did. The legend that the “Palestinians” are the “natives” and we are the big, bad conqueror, is revealed as baseless after 10 minutes of candid conversation with a “Palestinian”, or after a look at the new stones with which they built their villages. Aerial photographs also demonstrate the fact that the Arabs of Judea and Samaria came here late. If you ask them they will tell you: We came from Jordan. We came from Saudi Arabia. We came because there is money here, and a chance for a better life.
Had the Europeans wanted to know the truth, they would have watched the children’s shows on the television channel of the “moderate” Palestinian Authority External link, not of Hamas, and learn that the younger generation is taught that there is no Zionist entity. The State of Israel does not exist because its destruction is near. The highest value passed on to children is the murder of Jews. Actors in Mickey Mouse costumes sing songs in praise of martyrs. This is not a people that aspires for peace; these are people seeking to wipe us off the face of the earth and are making efforts to achieve their goal in every which way: terrorism and/or diplomacy.
Let no man deceive you by any means: for that day shall not come, except there come a falling away first, and that man of sin be revealed, the son of perdition;
The ramifications of Friday’s historic vote to allow gay marriage continue to be felt in Finland’s religious establishment. The Archbishop of Finland Kari Mäkinen had stated his support for the law, and said he “rejoiced” when it passed, and that seems to have caused a spike in resignations from the church.
Andrea Minichiello Williams, a member of the CofE’s parliament, the General Synod, and head of the Christian Concern pressure group, said: ‘At a time when we are looking at what British values mean, we cannot have values in a vacuum. British values stem from our Christian heritage.
‘We cannot pretend all religions are the same, or have the same benefits and outcomes for the nation.’
Douglas Murray, associate editor of the Spectator, said if Muslims were included in the coronation service, there must be room to for Hindus, Sikhs, atheists, and every Antichrist.
The threat has been taken so seriously it came close to leading to an outright ban on all hand luggage, a senior insider has revealed.
Mobile phones and electronic devices could still be banned from plane cabins, with the threat of a 9/11-style coordinated attack on London and other major cities feared imminent.
The unclassified document lists “observable behavior that may indicate radicalization and mobilization by HVEs,” including sharing “media glorification of violent extremist acts,” linking to militant Islamic websites, participation in internet forums where radical Islamic material is posted, and acquisition of weapons and other substances, including hydrogen peroxide, acetone, gasoline, propane, or fertilizer.
Werner Groenewald dedicated 12 years of his life in Kabul, Afghanistan before he and his two children were killed by Taliban suicide bombers.
The entire commodity complex is seeing major contagion-like price declines in early trading. WTI Crude is back below $65 for the first time since May 2010 – now down 16% since the initial leaks of OPEC’s decision last Wednesday. Gold and Silver are getting whacked and copper has plunged below 300 – back at its lowest since June 2010. The news over the weekend that Brevan Howard is liquidating its $630 million commodity hedge fund following recent poor performance is also likely not helping as what looked like late-Friday margin call liquidations are extending notably this evening.
There has only been one other time in history when the price of oil has crashed by more than 40 dollars in less than 6 months. The last time this happened was during the second half of 2008, and the beginning of that oil price crash preceded the great financial collapse that happened later that year by several months. Well, now it is happening again, but this time the stakes are even higher.
When the price of oil falls dramatically, that is a sign that economic activity is slowing down.
Demonstrating the sad state of America’s “economic dynamo”, shoppers spent an average only $380.95, down 6.4% from $407.02 a year earlier. In fact, as the NRF charts below demonstrate, there was a decline across virtually every tracked spending category (source):
So to summarize: holiday sales plunged, and Americans refused to shop because the economy is “stronger than ever” and because Americans have the option of shopping whenever, which is why they didn’t shop in the first place. That, and of course plunging gasoline prices leading to… plunging retail sales, just as all the economists “correctly” predicted.
One of the justifications pundits have been forced to use today to explain the unprecedented collapse in holiday spending, which as we noted yesterday, tumbled by 11% is that more and more consumers are simply purchasing items on line. Which is great… until one looks at the actual data which reveals a diametrically opposite reality, namely that shoppers spent an average $159.55 online, down 10.2% from $177.67 last year..
What is the bottom line? Well, as of Q3, when adding the consensus number for Q4 EPS, we find that while non-GAAP EPS is set to rise by a healthy 6.6%, real rarnings, as in GAAP EPS, will actually decline by 1.3% in 2014, meaning that for yet another year, the only upside in stocks has been due to – thank you Fed – multiples expansion.
After last night’s big flush across commodities, they have rallied notably. Gold is now up over $50 from those lows, with Silver, copper, and even crude bouncing hard (after testing below $64 overnight). The USD is notably weaker, stocks lower, and bond yields testing mid-October flash-crash Bullard lows…
Bottom line: whatever caused the record scramble for rehypothecated gold, it wasn’t fears about the outcome of the Swiss referendum. Something else spooked the precious metal a month ago, and as seen on the chart above, things have only gotten progressively worse since then.
Yesterday, when we commented on what was largely a pre-determined outcome of the Swiss gold referendum, we said that there still “is the question of what happens to the tension in the gold swap market: as noted last week, the 1 Month GOFO rate had tumbled to the most negative in over a decade. It was not clear if this collateral gold squeeze was the result of Swiss referendum overhang or due to other reasons. The market’s reaction on Monday should answer those questions.”
Well, a few hours ago we got the GOFO update for the “day after” and the answer is clear: it wasn’t fear of the Swiss referendum after all because the 1 Month GOFO just crashed even deeper into negative territory with the entire curve through 6M now red, and with 12 month GOFO just 0.6 bps away from negative for the first time. At this rate, tomorrow’s update will suggest that big institutions expect the gold swap shortage to persist through the end of 2015!
Also, judging by the gold reaction, which is about $50 from the overnight lows, someone else appears to have noticed that the rather shocking shortage of synthetic gold among institutions, which is finally seeping through into that whole “price discovery” process, where supply and demand actually matter.
Is it any surprise oil prices are cratering? With global GDP expectations plumbing cycle lows, JPMorgan just confirmed the global slowdown is accelerating as their Global Manufacturing PMI printed 51.8 – its slowest level of ‘expansion’ since September 2013.New Orders fell to the lowest reading since July 2013 and New Export Orders to the lowest since June 2013.
Silver & Gold are back above pre-OPEC decision leak levels…
Silver is up over 17% from its intraday lows today – this is the biggest positive swing since our data began. All the previous major swings have been downshifts, most recently in September 2011 (-22% and -18% over 2 days). Volume is very high also. Gold is back above $1,210,up over $70 from its intraday lows…
The biggest intraday positive swing on record… ($16.82 is next test for SIlver at 50DMA)
So what happend? Between 9:49:54 and 9:50:43 Eastern, AAPL plunged from nearly 6%, from $117.69 to $111.27, a moved which wiped out about $35 billion or one American Airlines (or one Transcanada, or one Travelers, or one Lukoil, or one Carnival, or one Christian Dior, or one Hyundai Motor Company, or one Takeda, or one State Street) in market cap.
As the following chart from Nanex shows, in today’s latest flash crash, the one thing that sent the company plunging was that like in most other flash crash instances, suddenly out of nowhere, a surge in sell orders hit the tape, with some 3,400 trades taking place every second, and sending the stock plummeting.
Will the SEC lift a finger to figure out how it was possible that such dramatic repricing on no news could happen? Of course not: as if by magic, the stock managed to re-levitate following its crash and most holders can pretend that just because there was another V-shaped recovery, what happened never actually happened.
Until one day, like Carl Icahn warned, the recovery part will never arrive. Then it will be too late to demand answers from the SEC.
In the meantime, remember what we said up front: increasingly more managers are piling into AAPL because it has the reputation of the “most liquid” stock in the market. Well, the “most liquid stock” just flash crashed.
Good luck to those holding the market’s “illiquid” stocks in hopes they can sell first before everyone else, when the selling begins.
Ezekiel’s Fire is coming BEFORE the Tribulation, the Antichrist, the Rapture and the Second Coming of our Lord and Savior. Anyone who says otherwise is either ignorant or a fool.
Unfortunately, I can’t do much for fools, but I can help those who are merely ignorant. And, THAT is why I have created EzekielsFire.com. It is and will be a comprehensive discussion of the largest solar flare in the history of the world – and what you need to do about it.
The events that precede Ezekiel’s Fire are approaching quickly. By the end of 2015 we will have had the worst financial crash in world history. In fact, this crash may begin well before that. We will also see some kind of armed conflict between Russia and the United States.
This armed conflict may be in the form of a war by proxy – between allies of Russia and allies of the United states. Or, it might be a direct conflict. It’s hard to say.
Although, the war-by-proxy is already well underway.
However, it is clear that the US is backing Russia into a corner, and the Russians know it. The Russians have attempted to warn the US that this course of action is foolish, but the US is not paying attention. So eventually, Russia will decide that it has no other choice than to neutralize America’s ability to mount a capable threat to Russia.
All of that will happen before Ezekiel’s Fire, when God uses this solar flare against Gog and Magog.
And, if you are not ready for that, you will die..
CHANCE OF M-FLARES: NOAA forecasters estimate a 50% chance of M-class solar flares today. There are four possible sources: Sunspots AR2217, AR2219, AR2221 and AR2222 have unstable ‘beta-gamma’ magnetic fields that harbor energy for moderately strong explosions. Solar flare alerts: text, voice
GEMINID METEOR SHOWER: Earth is entering a stream of gravelly debris from “rock comet” 3200 Phaethon, source of the annual Geminid Geminid meteor shower. Last night, Nov. 30-Dec. 1, NASA’s network of all-sky cameras detected three Geminid fireballs over the USA. This specimen from the desert southwest was clearly visible despite the glare from the waxing gibbous Moon:
Monday December 1 2014, 05:57:37 UTC 4 hours ago Arizona 4.9 2.0