by amongthenumberedsaints

WARNING: Keep a close watch this month.

Obama Worst President Since World War II, More Say US Would Be Better Under Romney, Latest Poll Finds

The president is increasingly finding that telling the Mr. Chairmanwoman to rig the market to all time highs does not translate to a comparable popularity rating. In fact, just the opposite.

While Obama’s slide in the polls is nothing new, the latest data from the Quinnipiac University Poll is about as bad as it gets for the president: in fact, perhaps the only thing more shocking than Obama “surpassing” George W. Bush as the worst president since World War II is the onset of revisionism, with some 45% saying the US would have been better with Romney as president, compared to just 38% who say Obama remains the better choice. Which incidentally confirms what we reported yesterday: while the Republican view of Obama has certainly never been lower, what is worse is that even the core democrat faithful are now giving up on the hope and change bringer, confirmed by the latest Gallup poll which saw democrat confidence in the economy tumbling to the lowest level for 2014.


A huge fireball passed over the skies of the UK on June 30, 2014, and was captured by Norman Lockyer Observatory in Devon at 02:04 UTC. According to Dave Jones from the UK Meteor Observation Network (UKMON) this was the largest ever meteor captured at the observatory.

It is reported to have broken into several pieces as it entered the Earth’s atmosphere. Some eyewitnesses said it was green in colour.

Huge fireball caught on camera by a Devon observatory, UK

Geologists say there were more than twice as many big quakes, those larger than magnitude 7, in the first quarter of the year than the average for all the quarters since 1979, reports Live Science.

Study: Big Earthquakes Doubled This Year

“We are now dealing with an extraordinary situation so we need more resources to fight the epidemic and we need extra help to convince communities to change their attitudes towards the virus.”

The World Health Organization says “drastic” action is needed to stamp out the virus and ensure it does not spread to other countries in the region.

Ebola: WHO calls emergency talks on outbreak

Youssef will be the last of his immediate family to jet off—joining roughly two-thirds of Iraq’s pre-war population of 1.5 million Christians who’ve fled abroad or trudged north to Kurdistan. Before he goes, though, he’s keen to set the record straight and settle some old scores.

“This is America’s fault. It’s the Muslims who are killing us, but this never would have happened if the West hadn’t turned our lives upside down,” he fumed. “Maybe we’ll be able to return one day if we have proper allies.”


Heritage Foundation Panelist on Radical Islam 

^^^She has a point, but only a dipshit buys the 911 story offered by the same government that shredded 911 put option evidence etc… She will never realize how compromised her narrative is. Halfwitted audiences cheering a compromised narrative is a NWO 666 bipartisan dream come true for Raytheon NZIRP Target shoppers.


^^^Very interesting report by this guy. Conclusion: In a nutshell, not only is the current destruction and slaughter in Syria obviously prophetic it’s hopeless. The amount of displaced people is massive and there is no possible future for them as far as restoring what has been lost. It’s only going to get worse from here and it will not get better ever again. The effort to depose Assad has confirmed the general stupidity of the interested parties that have established the current humanitarian crisis as a result of their pathetic effort to get rid of Assad. The two Islamic Sunni Shia muslim causes combined with ”the conquest” is beyond whatever evil Assad represents, and the whole reality of Syria is nothing more than a clear confirmation of just how pathetic stupid and evil the moronic muslim religion is and how obviously delusional and evil the western aspect is also. Put another way, if you were looking down from Heaven and judging the efforts defining Assad and his foes, there isn’t anyone involved in the Syrian war that isn’t going to Hell.

The leader of the al Qaeda offshoot now calling itself the Islamic State has called on Muslims worldwide to take up arms and flock to the “caliphate” it has declared on captured Syrian and Iraqi soil.

Proclaiming a “new era” in which Muslims will ultimately triumph, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi issued the call to jihad – holy war – in an audio message lasting nearly 20 minutes that was posted online on Tuesday.

Syria-Iraq ‘caliph’ incites Muslims to holy war

If you want to gather honey, don’t kick over the beehive.

This was how Dale Carnegie titled the first chapter of his 1936 personal development masterpiece—How to Win Friends and Influence People.

Carnegie had sensible advice: if you want to keep people on your team, first and foremost don’t piss them off. Duh. Seems pretty obvious.

I think the US government could use a little Dale Carnegie right about now (I actually just ordered a copy and had it sent to the President. You’re welcome, BO.)

Because based on the way they’re acting, you’d think they were test-driving an entirely different manuscript—How to Lose Friends and Alienate People.

The US Government Tells The Whole World To Go FATCA Themselves

Exhibit A: FATCA.

Four years ago, the US government passed this absurd law requiring every bank in the world to enter into an information-sharing agreement with the IRS.

Those who don’t will be subject to a 30% withholding tax on certain funds that get routed through the United States banking system.

What’s more, every bank on the planet is somehow supposed to simultaneously keep track of every other bank in the world and know precisely who is / is not in compliance with the law.

Banks that are in compliance are supposed to withhold the 30% tax on any funds transferred with banks that are not in compliance… otherwise they risk the withholding tax penalty themselves.

The whole thing is enough to make your head spin. Needless to say, the mere thought of complying with this law is enough to drive banks crazy.

This isn’t a way to treat friends. And today’s the day it comes into force.

Exhibit B: BNP Paribas.

Uncle Sam just slammed this French bank with a massive fee and threats of criminal penalties for doing business with a country they don’t like.

In doing so, the US has given BNP… and France… nine billion reasons to abandon America. Again, this isn’t the way you treat friends.

I think politicians fail to realize how important the US banking system is to holding together the US economy.

Right now, the entire world uses the US banking system.

FATCA—the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act—is America’s global tax law. And it’s finally here after a four-year ramp up. It requires foreign banks to reveal American accounts holding over $50,000. Bank secrecy? Forget it. Non-compliant institutions could be frozen out of U.S. markets, so everyone is complying.

So far, 77,000 financial institutions have registered and 80 countries have too. Countries must throw their agreement behind the law or face dire repercussions. Tax havens have joined up. Even China and Russia are getting on board. The IRS has a searchable list of financial institutions. See FFI List Search and Download Tool and a User Guide. Countries on board are at FATCA – Archive.

FATCA grew out of a controversial rule. America taxes its citizens—and even permanent residents—on their worldwide income regardless of where they live.

FATCA, IRS Global Tax Law, Is Everywhere — Even Russia & China 

All told, the Fed has spent nearly $4 trillion. To put this number into perspective, it comes down to a little over $12,000 for every man woman and child in the US.

The end result has been the single weakest recovery in over 80 years. Adjusted for real inflation, we’ve essentially flat-lined.

And now, we have a clear illustration that the Fed’s theories are totally false.

The Fed Has Failed… And Wasted Trillions of Dollars

To the Fed’s Janet Yellen, runaway inflation – at least that which can not be “hedonised” away by the BLS like iPad and LCD TV prices – may be simply “noise”, which probably explains why she doesn’t rent. But for the record number of Americans who are forced to rent as house prices are too high for the vast majority of the population while mortgage origination has tumbled to record lows (as banks can generate far higher returns on reserve by buying stocks than lending out said money), inflation is going from bad to worse. Case in point: as the WSJ shows, since 1990 asking rents – in real terms i.e., adjusted for inflation – have increased a whopping 15%. The change in median income over the same period? 0%.

This means that all else equal, the average American has 15% less disposable income after factoring rent compared to 24 years earlier.

Where Disposable Income Goes To Die: Since 1990 Real Rents Are Up 15% While Median Incomes Are Unchanged

And since the demand for rental properties will only go up as even parent basements are getting full, it means the already record high rent prices will duly follow, taking even bigger chunks out of US disposable income, and thus, that part of the US economy, some 70% of it, which depends on consumer spending. The beneficiary? The personal bank accounts of owners of rental properties… such as BlackStone – America’s largest landlord.

So what is the alternative? Well, just “charge it”… as increasingly more Americans are doing, and as the subprime lending bubble of the 2007 period is meticulously recreated, one can say with 100% certainty that the consequences will be identical.


Needless to say, this assumes the current consensus for Non-GAAP earnings growth is accurate, which as we explained previously is driven almost entirely by “one-time charge” addbacks: addbacks which traditionally peak just before recessions strikes.

But all of the above is “noise” to quote Janet Yellen. One quick look at the chart below and it becomes immediately clear that the 190% surge in the S&P since the 2009 lows has been entirely on the $10 trillion (excluding China’s $25 trillion in new financial debt) in central bank created liquidity.


If the New Normal is truly permanent, then cycles and technical/fundamental analysis have been mooted: they no longer work because the central banks can push stocks higher essentially forever.

There is another school of thought which holds that central bank intervention so distorts markets that their efforts to eliminate downtrends introduce the seeds of instability which eventually disrupt the market.

Believers in the New Normal hold that the Fed and other central banks have an unlimited ability to print money and buy assets, such that they can buy up the majority of markets to keep valuations elevated.

I see such linear thinking as dangerously simplistic in a non-linear world, and I make the case that the Fed is far more constrained by the bond and currency markets (recall that all these markets are interconnected) than the New Normal faithful believe: The Fed’s Hobson’s Choice: End QE and Zero-Interest Rates or Destabilize the Dollar and the Treasury Market.

We might also question the basic premise of the New Normal crowd which is that the recent past is an accurate guide to the future. To quote songwriter Jackson Browne: Don’t think it won’t happen just because it hasn’t happened yet.

Though the New Normal faithful see cycles as banished by the godlike powers of central banks, I see a pattern in the New Normal:

It appears the stock market is responding to central bank intervention to the degree the interventions have enabled corporate profits to soar. How has intervention boosted profits? One easy way is that by lowering the cost of credit to near-zero, corporations have booked the savings in interest payments as profits.

The question of the New Normal boils down to: Can corporate profits continue soaring? Or perhaps more to the point: Can central bank intervention keep pushing profits higher? Since interest rates are already near 0%, the answer seems to be the fruit of QE and ZIRP have already been picked, and there is little more profit to be gained from these policies.

There are a number of reasons to doubt this steep ascent is sustainable, for example, a rise in the U.S. dollar crimping profits earned in other currencies (About Those Forecasts of Eternally Rising Corporate Profits… ), a weakening global economy and the stagnation of real household earnings.

Here is a chart which shows corporate profits have indeed rolled over in the first quarter of 2014:

The Big Question: When?
Is the New Normal enforceable even as markets reach extremes, or is the faith in the central banks’ power to bend markets to their will just the latest manifestation of hubris?

No one knows at the moment, but as this article has shown, there are numerous persuasive reasons to be skeptical of the New Normal faith that markets can only loft higher in a permanent state of low volatility and rising profits.

In Part 2: The Signal That Will Tell Us A Stock Market Reversal Is Imminent, we present a number of markers that will indicate when the top is in and the uptrend has reversed. The cautious investor will do well to be attentive to these. Remember: locking in gains — even if that means still leaving some upside on the table — is vastly preferable than holding too long, and watching those gains evaporate.

Factory Orders Drop Most Since Jan; Inventories Surge Most Since Oct 2011

The post-weather rebound is over. Factory Orders, which were expected to fall modestly, dropped 0.5% – the biggest drop and biggest miss since January. Notably defense-spending dropped 30% as it seems we didn’t need 10 new submarines in May (and this is with Ex-Im bank still funding growth). On the flip side, if you were wondering where the recent data (survey) exuberance has come from, wonder no more – inventories in May rose 0.8% – the biggest rise since Oct 2011. More malinvestment-driven exuberance – if only wages were up? Surely subprime credit is soaring so that will take care of it.

Factory Orders have stalled the recovery falling back to January contraction levels.

Now, many readers will surely dismiss these results by insisting that “this time is different.” We beg to differ. By our estimates, the economy and financial markets are as vulnerable to higher rates as they’ve ever been. Here are a few reasons:

The present expansion is weaker than any other post-World War 2 expansion, suggesting that it won’t take much of a slowdown to push the economy into recession.
Monetary policy has been exceptionally loose for longer than ever before, allowing financial markets more time to become overpriced and complacent.

There are many more risk-takers in the global economy who’ve learned how to exploit cheap dollar policies than there were in, say, 1955, the start of the period shown in the charts.
Most importantly, aggregate debt is at or near record levels, not only in the U.S. but also in other large economies.
Bottom line

Our conclusion is to reject forecasts calling for the economy to power right through interest rate hikes without stumbling. A more likely scenario is that policy “normalization” leads us directly into the next bust. Alternatively, the Fed might abort its planned rate hikes, allowing economic and financial market imbalances to continue growing. Either way, we can expect recurring booms and busts until our monetary approach is rebuilt on stronger policy principles.

Richard Russell – Meltdown In The U.S. Dollar & Oil To Hit $150

The chart below shows the US dollar breaking down and giving a “sell signal.” This projects a decline to 73 on the chart.

Wait, one more chart, below, and it’s oil. A rising oil price is inflationary, which is bullish for gold. I see oil at above 150 some time this year, which means seven dollar a gallon gasoline.

he following is from well-known economist John Williams of Shadow Statistics:

With the federal government and Federal Reserve locked in their respective system of destructive fiscal and monetary policies, a related, continuing massive loss of global and domestic confidence in the US dollar, should lead to an outright dumping of the US currency in the global markets, setting the initial stages of a hyperinflationary great depression. The timing of the hyperinflation onset by the end of 2014 remains in place, with the odds of that occurrence estimated at 90%.

The BRICs Are Morphing Into An Anti-Dollar Alliance 

While numerous massively indebted administrations around the world hope to divert the attention of what’s left of their struggling middle class away from its daily impoverished existence and distract it with flashing lights and glitzy animations showing another all time market high on a daily basis, a significantly more important shift taking place behind the scenes is appreciated by very few: the ongoing de-dollarization of the world. For the latest example of how increasingly more countries are setting the stage for the final currency war, we go again to Russia where VOR’s Valentin Mândr??escu explains that slowly but surely the BRICS – that proud Goldman acronym which was conceived to perpetuate the great American way of life by releasing trillions in US-denominated debt in heretofore untapped markets – are morphing into an anti-dollar alliance.

If the current trend continues, soon the dollar will be abandoned by most of the significant global economies and it will be kicked out of the global trade finance. Washington’s bullying will make even former American allies choose the anti-dollar alliance instead of the existing dollar-based monetary system. The point of no return for the dollar may be much closer than it is generally thought. In fact, the greenback may have already past its point of no return on its way to irrelevance.